San Antonio, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS64 KEWX 142359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances continue to increase late Friday into Saturday.

- Temperatures remain near seasonal levels for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Looking at visible satellite imagery we are starting to see a
cumulus field building over the Hill Country. We expect this trend
to continue with a similar scenario unfolding that we saw yesterday
afternoon albeit more isolated in nature meaning not everyone will
see storms this afternoon. PWATs are currently ranging from 1.5-1.9
so any storms will have the capability of producing heavy rainfall
along with gusty winds from any downdrafts and outflow boundaries. As
like previous nights we expect this activity to wane and diminish by
sunset as we lose daytime heating. Low temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s overnight.

Most areas should remain dry during the day Friday except for the
Coastal Plains and along and east of the I-35 Corridor. Friday night
we start to see our chances of rain increasing as Invest 98L
currently just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico continues to
approrach our area from the Southern Gulf. As it stands a
Reconnaissance plane is en route now to investigate this system. We
will know much more once we receive their data. However, looking at
IR and visible imagery it looks substantially better than it did even
12 hours ago. Based on the coordination with NHC the odds for this
system to develop have now increased to the medium (40%) category
within the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that we could see
impacts from this system regardless of development. The main impacts
would be locally heavy rainfall as a surge of moisture (PWATS in
excess of 2 inches) moves north over our area allowing for warm
tropical rain processes to occur. Additionally, global models are not
handling this system well so its still too soon to say where the
heaviest rainfall will fall and how much. Temperatures for Friday
will remain seasonable with highs upper 90s to low 100s and lows in
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the long term portion, rain chances continue to increase for
Saturday as Invest 98L continues moving in from the south in southern
Texas. Because of this decided to raise pops to around 50% for areas
along the Rio Grande Plains as this looks like the most likely track
of the system. As mentioned previously models are having a very
difficult time with this system so its hard to pinpoint just where
the locally heavy rainfall could occur. Likewise, WPC also has most
of our area now in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) for excessive
rainfall for day 3 (Saturday). Continued to raise pops (15%-20%)
into early Saturday evening as I`m not buying that the moisture will
shut off so quick as some global models are trying to suggest. After
Saturday evening we should see mainly drier conditions as ridging
builds back over the area for Sunday with only low rain chances for
the Coastal Plains.

Looking ahead towards next week our area remains just to the
east of a strengthening high over the four corners region. This
allows our area to be influenced by repeated disturbances rounding
the periphery of said ridge thus keeping low rain chances peppered
throughout the long term portion of this forecast. Regarding
temperatures, expect the coolest day of the next several to be on
Saturday due to the possible extensive cloud cover and rainfall
chances over the region with highs reaching the mid 90s. However, if
current trends continue highs may need to be scaled back a bit.
otherwise expect mainly seasonable temperatures for mid august
standards across the area. Continue to monitor forecasts as we get
new information in regarding this tropical system and what impacts we
may see locally across the area.



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Southeast flow along the I-35 corridor weakens gradually overnight,
with veering to a more southerly direction at AUS. Model support for
low cloud development tonight has increased, so have maintained
prevailing MVFR CIGs at I-35 terminals beginning around 08Z-09Z
before clouds erode by around 15Z. VFR continues at DRT. A surge of
onshore flow late afternoon will intensify southeast winds at I-35
terminals with 10-15 kt possible. This may be accompanied by
isolated SHRA, but confidence in timing and location was too low for
PROB30 mentions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  78  98  78 /  20  20  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            95  75  95  75 /  30  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 100  78 /  10  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  77  98  76 /  20  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport            100  74  98  75 /  20  20  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75  98  75 /  20  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  77  95  77 /  20  20  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport          101  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...Tran